The campaign has started

Against a background of South Africa’s ruling party, the ANC is feeling the increasing pressure of divided leadership, policy conflicts, factional struggles, violent service delivery protests, allegations of corruption and self-enrichment, the controversial antics of Julius Malema, and more, the country is bracing itself for the next round of local government elections next year – most likely to be held between March and June.

But surprisingly enough, unless things fall much more seriously apart for the ANC, the results of a large number of municipal by-elections across the country since May last year, tend to indicate that the ANC should retain its share of the votes previously captured or even improve its standing, with the Western Cape being the exception.

More trends identified by the results of by-elections point to the Democratic Alliance (DA) continuing to strengthen its hold on the Western Cape at the expense of the ANC, while in KwaZulu-Natal the Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) continues its demise at the hands of the ANC.

A new factor that could impact significantly on the local elections is the emerging alliance or coalition of opposition parties, which so far, tentatively includes the Democratic Alliance (DA), the Independent Democrats (ID), the Congress of the People (COPE) and the United Democratic Movement (UDM). Already, this past week the DA benefitted from this development when, in a by-election in Worcester, the other opposition parties did not field candidates, allowing the DA to seize control of this key Western Cape town from the ANC.

Poll percentages have not varied dramatically in most of these by-elections compared to the last local government elections, remaining the same in most and shifting up or down only marginally in the rest, with shifts of between 10% and 20% in only a very few. On the basis of that, and despite conventional wisdom holding that by-elections cannot be compared to elections, the results of the by-elections could be considered fairly accurate trend indicators.

Protests do not impact elections

The most surprising indication arising from these by-elections is that the spate of service delivery protests over the past year does not seem to have hampered the ANC’s election prospects anywhere outside of the Western Cape. In fact, in two towns where by-elections took place shortly after violent service delivery protests had occurred there, the ANC fared well.

In Emfuleni, Vereeniging, the ANC candidate was elected unopposed on 24 March. Only a few weeks earlier tensions had been high as service delivery protesters clashed violently with police in the area, necessitating visits to the town by high-profile ANC and government members.

In several wards in Lekwa, Standerton, the scene of violent protests in July, September and October last year, an ANC candidate was elected unopposed in one instance. Another pushed up the ANC-majority significantly in a January by-elections.

Speculatively, there could be any one of a number of possible reasons for this. It may be that most of the protesters are living in informal squatter settlements (the demand for housing is a key demand in many protests) and are not registered as voters. Or it may be that, as has happened in the past, ANC voters are upset with some members of the ANC family in some areas over specific issues, but continue to view the greater ANC as their political home. It may even be that the ANC is correct in claiming that the township unrest is being instigated and driven by elements that are not necessarily ANC supporters.

In the Western Cape the ANC has been steadily losing support in by-elections – compared to the results of the previous local government elections – in the key towns of Worcester, Caledon, Hermanus, various parts of Cape Town, Malmesbury, Ceres, Ladismith, and Plettenberg Bay. Four ANC-held wards in Worcester, Hermanus and Cape Town fell to the DA.

The DA also won a ward from the Independent Civic Organisation of SA in Mossel Bay last week. In Worcester, the DA took control of the town by winning a key ward from the ANC last week, after having won another ward from the ANC earlier.

The DA and its fellow opposition parties have demonstrated here just how successful an alliance or coalition might be in the local elections next year. Also, the DA’s success could possibly be attributed in part to its solid performance as a ruling party both at local and provincial level, contrasting sharply with the ANC’s poor delivery performance.

However, part of the ANC’s problems in the Western Cape is self-inflicted as its organisation in the province is in total disarray while its leaders and two major factions are engaged in a bitter struggle for control.

In KwaZulu-Natal all the by-elections since last year – with the exception of a by-election in Ulundi in February, Imbabazane (Loskop) in October and Bergville in August – show that the Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) continues to seriously lose ground to the ANC, a phenomenon that was strongly bolstered by the rise to power of President Jacob Zuma, a traditionalist Zulu.

The question now is whether the IFP will even survive much longer as a political party, or whether next year’s local elections will be the end of it.

No less than seven IFP-held wards have fallen to the ANC in by-elections since May last year, while in others the ANC increased its majorities significantly at the expense of the IFP.

The ANC should make a clean sweep next year in much of KwaZulu-Natal. However, the DA has also managed to increase its support in a substantial number of by-elections in KwaZulu-Natal at the expense of the ANC and IFP and will be a factor there, if even only in a distant second place.

Nelson Mandela Bay to the DA?

Using percentages of voter support in last year’s general election as a basis for analysis, there also seems to be a slim possibility that another of South Africa’s six metropolitan municipalities could join Cape Town next year in being ruled by the DA or a DA-led coalition/alliance.

In 2009 the ANC won only 50.1% of the vote in Port Elizabeth (Nelson Mandela Bay Metro), with the DA and COPE securing 29% and 17% each. Their total of 46% could further be increased by votes that previously went to other parties such as the UDM and ID, and by the ongoing trend of the ANC losing support in mostly urban pockets of its former Eastern Cape stronghold. In addition, since 1994, opposition parties have traditionally performed better in municipal elections than in national elections.

However, as pointed out, the run-up to the elections takes place against a background of generally worsening political conditions in South Africa. Further delivery failure by ANC governments at all levels could still take a toll on the ruling party, as could its weak leadership.

Finally, the intensification of hate speech incidents between social groups and political parties, fuelled by the ignorant and short-sighted statements of ANC Youth League leader Julius Malema, coupled with violent delivery protests in townships, could set the stage for volatile, even violent municipal elections.

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