How prepared is South Africa? {writer: Stef Terblanche}

On Wednesday, 12 September 2007, the South African Weather Service and South African National Disaster Management Centre (SANDMC) received an early warning from the Indian Ocean Tsunami Early Warning System that an earthquake measuring 8.3 on the Richter scale had struck off the coast of Sumatra. The chilling message was that a tsunami might occur and could impact on the South African coast.

As it turned out, that warning was cancelled shortly afterwards when no tsunami developed.

However, as Johan Minnie, disaster risk management specialist and executive member of the Disaster Management Institute of Southern Africa (DMISA) points out, the warning did raise questions about issues of preparedness and response.

Disaster management in South Africa underwent a significant change with the implementation of the Disaster Management Act of 2002 and the National Disaster Management Framework (South Africa, 2005). It placed South Africa at the forefront of a global paradigm shift from a purely response-oriented approach to disaster management, to a more proactive approach, says the SANDMC.

A network of disaster management centres was to be set up in all municipalities, provinces and at national level.

Most common hazards and disasters that are dealt with in South Africa are fires and annual floods, but potential outbreaks of pandemics such as the H1N1 virus also have to be planned for, says Minnie.

South Africa is part of the Indian Ocean Tsunami Early Warning System, while the SA Weather Service serves as channel to distribute early warning messages to disaster management structures, both on tsunami risk and all manner of
severe weather.

According to Minnie, the typical types of events being planned and prepared for across South Africa include fires, flooding, storm damage, coastal surge, hazardous materials incidents, major transport incidents (air, sea, road, rail), communicable diseases (both human and animal), drought, pest infestations including locust swarms, incidents at mass events including crowd surges, earthquakes, tsunamis, and drought among others.

“The basic principle is to take an any-hazard approach, where your planning is simple and flexible enough to adapt to the circumstances. You can have one standard response plan which is slightly adapted depending on the hazard causing the disaster impact.”

Minnie believes disaster management is “everybody’s business” and that every organisation should accept responsibility for its own safety from and resilience against disaster, and should also participate in risk-reduction initiatives in their environment.

Asked whether South African cities and local government in general were well prepared for most disasters, Minnie said that the SANDMC has done a survey to ascertain how far municipalities have progressed with the implementation of the Disaster Management Act.

“There is a concern that sophisticated legislation, policies and plans exist, but that the practical implementation is a bit lacking and could be improved though extensive exercises, drills and practical in-service training,” he said.

A report compiled for the SANDMC by the African Centre for Disaster Studies at the North-West University, found that disaster risk management in general in district and metropolitan municipalities and provinces was still very under-developed, constrained by things such as ignorance and a lack of financial, infrastructural and human resource capacity.

At a recent conference, Mnikeli Ndabambi from the SA Weather Service indicated that despite new technological advancements such as a worldwide Meteorological Observation Network, numerical weather prediction models, state-of-the-art technology, super computers, remote sensing through radar networks, lightning detection networks, high-resolution satellites, and global collaborations and information sharing, South Africa is not using weather information to its benefit in forecasting disasters.

Ndabambi pointed out the example of hospitals not receiving or making use of weather warnings despite the interconnectedness of climate, weather and health. The change in weather conditions can lead to the appearance of epidemic disease while global climate change is having a major impact on disaster risk threats including the triggering of, for example, cholera epidemics.

Botswana, for example, has developed an early warning system that integrates a seasonal rainfall forecast with population and health information in its fight against malaria. The use of the seasonal rainfall forecasts has added a four-month lead time over previous malaria epidemic warnings.

The acting head of the SANDMC, George Killian, in October told delegates at the SA Disaster Management Conference in Durban that two provinces, Northern Cape and Mpumalanga, still lacked provincial disaster management centres.

Elsewhere, however, good progress has been made. Gauteng, for example, opened its state-of-the-art R50-million disaster management centre in November 2007 as part of its preparations for the 2010 Fifa Soccer World Cup.

Apart from the Gauteng Disaster Management Centre, the facility also houses an Emergency Management Medical Services (EMMS) to allow emergencies and disasters to be dealt with from a central point.

Killian told the conference in Durban that the creation of the Department of Co-operative Governance and Traditional Affairs had ushered in a new era in which strategic priorities had shifted towards the developmental state.

“The objective of the NDMC is to promote the implementation of the Disaster Management Act through the establishment of an integrated and co-ordinated system of disaster management, with special emphasis on risk reduction – which includes disaster prevention, preparedness and mitigation by national, provincial and municipal organs of state, statutory functionaries, national government line departments, and other role-players involved in disaster management, as well as communities.”

The DMC system in South Africa is not only concerned with emergency responses to disasters, but is also involved in subsequent support and rehabilitation activities. Apart from implementing the new act, the SANDMC is also heavily involved in preparing for the 2010 World Cup.

It also participates in external activities such as United Nations mechanisms and in disaster management activities of the Southern African Development Community.

In a major city like Johannesburg, disaster management is an integral part of the city’s Emergency Management Services (EMS).

In Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality (Port Elizabeth), following the disastrous floods of August 2006 that caused death and destruction, an amount of close to R1.4 million was set aside to install eight CCTV early warning cameras at key points such as potentially dangerous river crossings so that rivers can be monitored upstream.

And the eThekwini Municipality’s Emergency Services Disaster Management branch has partnered with the municipality’s Environmental Health Unit, Airports Company South Africa, national and provincial government departments to develop a better understanding of disasters and prepare responses. One focus area is the South Durban Basin with its concentration of industry and the low-lying nature of the area, which places it at high risk of disaster.

According to the City of Cape Town, preparations by its Disaster Risk Management Centre in 2008 allowed it to respond fast and successfully to the xenophobic attacks in Cape Town, as well as to the annual floods on the Cape Flats.

Charlotte Powell, Cape Town’s DRMC Public Awareness & Preparedness manager, says the city has to prepare for both anticipated and completely unexpected disasters, and that all types require a rapid response.

The Cape Town DRMC has plans in place for winter flooding, hazardous materials spills on highways, for dealing with problems at Koeberg Nuclear Power Station, and more. There are even plans for dealing with meteorites and space debris falling out of the sky, for tidal waves crashing our shore, for biological and chemical ‘warfare events’, for outbreaks of infectious disease, and for a 9/11 terror attack, she says.

The city is also involved in the UN’s International Strategy for Disaster Reduction and the World Health Organization’s World Disaster Reduction Campaign to make “Hospitals Safe from Disasters”. Successful evacuation exercises were run recently at the two Cape Town hospitals chosen for this specific purpose.

A number of volunteer services and private enterprises also support, assist and feed into the national disaster management system.

On the monitoring, early warning and risk reduction side, there are organisations such as the South Africa Weather and Disaster Information Service made up of amateur radio operators and other private citizens.  

Another is Rescue South Africa, an official South African Disaster Response Team comprising volunteer emergency response specialists from the South African public and private sector emergency and ancillary services.

Its multidisciplinary task forces include specialist rescuers, trauma doctors, paramedics, K9 search dog units, civil engineers, chemical and safety specialists.

It is the official Urban Search and Rescue Task force to local government in Gauteng. Working closely with the UN, it has also completed a number of international rescue missions.

Earthquakes

Recent earthquakes that caused major destruction and loss of life in other parts of the world have also raised questions of just how prepared South Africa is for such a natural disaster, and how big the risk is of it occurring.

It is of particular concern to residents of Cape Town’s Milnerton, Table View and Melkbosstrand suburbs, which straddle a major fault line known as the Milnerton Fault.

Scientists believe this fault is due for a significant event once again. The last major earthquake here, registering an estimated 6.5 on the Richter scale, occurred exactly 200 years ago on 4 December 1809.

However, the rest of South Africa seems equally at risk of experiencing a fairly big earthquake event. Large areas of the African continent are also in an unstable, tectonically active state. The most immediate threat, nonetheless, seems to be centred on Cape Town.

Predictions of an imminent ‘big one’ became more common after a minor earthquake measuring 3.1 on the Richter scale shook these parts in 2003.

The day after the 1809 earthquake, people travelled from Cape Town to stare in awe at geysers of muddy water spurting upwards from schisms that had appeared in the earth. The epicentre was in the vicinity of Rietvlei, and the farmhouse at Jan Biesjes Kraal (which stood more or less where the Paddocks Shopping Centre is situated today in Milnerton Ridge) was flattened.

The Milnerton Fault runs eight kilometres offshore near Koeberg nuclear power station, through Table View and Milnerton, and on to the Cape Flats and part of False Bay.

Further northeast of Cape Town, a major earthquake in 1969 destroyed many buildings in the towns of Tulbagh and Ceres.

Recent seismic activity in the area has caused geological experts to warn that the Milnerton Fault has resumed activity, a warning taken seriously by the municipality of Cape Town.

This emerged when the city, some time ago, insisted that a new 20-storey apartment building in Table View be built according to stringent “earthquake-resistant” specifications.

Powell says that in view of scientific evidence, there is a low to moderate probability of an earthquake occurring in Cape Town.

But the city’s disaster management priorities are geared more towards frequently occurring hazards such as fires and floods.

However, as part of the city’s preparations for the 2010 World Cup, it has acquired additional personnel, specialised equipment and vehicles, and is providing extensive training to deal with emergencies such as collapsed buildings.

“We are in the process of establishing an Urban Search and Rescue Team as part of our all-inclusive planning and preparations for 2010. This legacy of planning and preparation for 2010 will stand us in good stead to respond to any other major incidents, including earthquakes.”

In South Africa, the Seismology Unit of the Council for Geoscience (CGS) is responsible for monitoring regional seismicity of southern Africa through the operation and maintenance of the South African National Seismograph Network (SANSN) and various other seismological stations in eastern and southern Africa.

These stations provide information on the occurrence of earthquakes and enable assessment of the seismic hazard in the subcontinent, such information being supplied to engineering houses, insurance companies and state organisations, including the SANDMC.

The latter relays information to the provincial and municipal disaster management centres and other agencies.

While modern instrumental data offers the best and most complete information about earthquakes, it must be supplemented by historical and geological evidence, as seismometers have not been around long enough to provide a basis for unqualified geological conclusions, says the CGS.

The CGS has a record of events in South Africa dating back to an occurrence in 1620, recorded by the crew of a ship anchored off Robben Island.

In 1811, the Milnerton Fault gave Cape Town residents another fright of between 5 and 5.6 on the Richter scale.

In 1912, many farm buildings were destroyed in a quake measuring 6, with its epicentre at Koffiefontein in the Free State province.

Thereafter, various shocks registering between 5 and 6.3 hit the De Doorns-Worcester-Ceres area (1963), the Tulbagh and Ceres areas (1969), Welkom in the Free State where buildings were damaged and a block of flats collapsed (1976), and Carletonville, west of Johannesburg (1992). There was a multitude of smaller ones in between.

In February 2006, a powerful earthquake measuring 7.5 hit Mozambique and was felt as far as Durban and Harare.

One of the most recent seismic events was a light tremor of 1.6 on the local Richter scale, recorded at Springbok in the Northern Cape on 25 May this year. It caused some consternation in Springbok, but no damage.

After the first seismographs were introduced in South Africa in 1910, a modern national network of seismological stations has been developed since 1971 and is operated by the Seismology Unit.

Since 1988, several seismological stations have been upgraded, with the current network comprising 29 seismological stations, of which 23 are digital.

Disaster management

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Comments (1)

• |2010-01-19 12:55:29 Carin Maehr  - Enquire regarding Disaster Management Workshops
  Yes it is vital to not ignore the fact that this might happen in our country.
  
  I would like to find out more regarding Disaster Management Workshops.
  
  This article has motivated me to investigate this.
  
  Thank you.
  
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