Claims about emission reduction a bluff and fraudulent

The Conference of the Parties (COP17) under the United Nations’ Framework Convention on Climate Change to be held in Durban, South Africa during December 2011 is likely to be just another inconsequential talk shop where the core problem at the heart of human-induced climate change – the link between greenhouse emissions and economic growth – remains unaddressed.

Claims from various developed countries about progress in reducing their carbon emissions, because it is only based on domestic production, is at best one big bluff and could even be called fraudulent. If the carbon footprint of consumption patterns is taken into consideration it becomes clear that they have merely exported production and the carbon emissions that goes with it.

In fact the per capita carbon footprint of most developed countries has gone up markedly during the last decade. It has only been moved offshore.

Unless consumption patterns, like insisting on the luxury of a reasonless variety of food supply via imports are addressed, it would be difficult if not impossible to reduce the global levels of carbon emissions.

The real conundrum however lies in breaking the direct link that exists between economic growth and carbon emissions under the present global energy regime.

The economic and the emissions growth in the emerging world over the recent decade or more comes largely from the export of production by the developed world and the energy consumption patterns associated with it.

It, however also goes a long way towards explaining why the United States has to date not yet signed the international climate change agreement or Kyoto protocol, the first commitment period of which runs out next year. The Americans have made their signature dependent on that of its main economic competitor, China and other emerging economies like Brazil.

Developed world arrogance

This situation with American non-compliance with Kyoto also further exposes the arrogance from some European quarters within the climate change debate.

After a recent European Parliamentary delegation’s visit to South Africa a Dutch member, Judith Sargentini called into question the country’s suitability to host COP 17. She said that South Africa has no strategy in place, nor has the “capacity to rally all the countries to agree to an acceptable document.”

It is COP 17 coming up in Durban and still key players like America and China have not signed Kyoto. Neither did COP 16 last year in Canun, Mexico or its 2009 predecessor COP 15 in Copenhagen, Norway make any real progress on this front.

But Ms Sargentini sees it fit to remark and spread it on SA’s bread that she “… does not  think SA will be ale to clinch the deal on climate change as the lead convener of the conference does not have a convincing plan in place. Sadly, the conference will be another talk shop.”

At the same time it is an accepted fact that at least one-third of the world’s population has not yet benefited from the economic growth that has given rise to human -nduced climate change via industrialisation.

Emission/development coupling and China

A recent report on the website openDemocracy stated about the issue of emissions in the United Kingdom: “… the government … realises that acknowledging the problem of out sourced emissions would place it in a bind, on two counts. Firstly, it would give the lie to all previous declarations of progress towards cutting emissions. And secondly, it would have to admit that the link between growth and emissions has not yet been broken – merely that we’ve moved a big chunk of emissions off-balance sheet.”

There is no reason to believe that the situation in most of the rest of the developed world is any different than is the case in the UK.

On the front of climate friendly growth many experts believe that the future lies in putting more effort and resources into firstly, in the shorter to medium term, much improved energy efficiency and secondly in the long term into creating a new green global energy regime.

According to the EU’s Commissioner for Climate Action, Connie Hedegaard some progress can be expected in the near future from China, which will be releasing its next five-year plan in a few weeks. For the first time, it is believed, China will reveal its carbon reduction targets.

“This may call the bluff of the US, one of the world’s biggest carbon emitters, which has consistently refused to make mandatory cuts in carbon emissions unless China commits to do so too,” she said at a media briefing in Cape Town during a visit to South Africa in late February.

If the West want to avoid being out-competed by China on energy technology, they would have to take action, she warned.

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