Concern over geo-engineering science

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Tuesday, 16 August 2011 07:42

earth_opt2.0Plans for human manipulation may have unforeseen side effects {writer: Fanie Heyns}

High on the agenda of the global climate change conference in Durban from 28 November to 9 December this year will be geo-engineering as well as the need for a new development path that is more inclusive and less dependent on the exploitation of non-renewable resources. Some of these plans, however, may have unpredictable side effects.

 

The Guardian of London recently published an article about geo-engineering, in which it claimed that lighter coloured crops, aerosols in the stratosphere and iron filings in the ocean are among the measures being considered by leading scientists for “geo-engineering” the Earth’s climate. This was according to leaked documents from the United Nations climate change body, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

In a move that suggests the UN and rich countries are despairing of reaching agreement by consensus at the global climate talks, American, British and other Western scientists will outline a series of ideas to manipulate the world’s climate to reduce carbon emissions.

But they accept that even though the ideas could work in theory, they might equally have unintended and even irreversible consequences, according to The Guardian report.

The papers, leaked from inside the IPCC ahead of a geo-engineering expert group meeting in Lima in Peru, showed that around 60 scientists would propose or try to assess a range of radical measures including:

• Blasting sulphate aerosols into the stratosphere to reflect sunlight into space;

• Depositing massive quantities of iron filings into the oceans;

• Bio-engineering crops to be a lighter colour to reflect sunlight; and

• Suppressing cirrus clouds.

Other proposals likely to be suggested included spraying seawater into clouds to reflect sunlight away from the Earth; burying charcoal; painting streets and roofs white on a vast scale; adding lime to oceans; and finding different ways to suck greenhouse gases out of the air and deposit heat deep into oceans.

The meeting was expected to provide governments with a scientific assessment of geo-engineering technologies, but is widely expected to be in favour of more research and possibly large-scale experimentation despite an international moratorium adopted by the UN last year in Japan. (Source: The Guardian, 15 June 2011)

No mandate for geo-engineering

Earlier, more than 125 environment, development and human rights groups from 40 countries published a letter sent to Rajendra Pachauri, the Nobel prize-winning head of the IPCC, warning that the body had no mandate to consider the legality or political suitability of using geo-engineering.

“Asking a group of geo-engineering scientists if more research should be done is like asking bears if they would like honey,” read the letter, signed by groups including Friends of the Earth International, La Via Campesina and the Action Group on Erosion, Technology and Concentration (ETC Group).

Concern over the IPCC meeting centres on who should decide what kind of geo-engineering takes place, and how it should be regulated and monitored.

Some projects may, if they work, unintentionally change weather patterns and possibly affect farming and livelihoods in some of the most vulnerable areas in the world.

“(Geo-engineering) is not a scientific question – it is a political one. International peasant organisations, indigenous peoples and social movements have all expressed outright opposition to such measures as a false solution to the climate crisis,” added the letter. (Source: The Guardian, 15
June 2011)

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Britain, along with the United States, is strongly backing geo-engineering research, claimed The Guardian, and has supported scientists with millions of pounds of university research, including a Bristol University plan to develop a “hose” held up by balloons through which sulphates can be sent into the stratosphere.

International guidelines and principles

The Royal Society is now trying to develop international guidelines and principles.

Recently, Georgina Mace, professor of Conservation Science at Imperial College London; and Catherine Redgwell, professor of International Law at University College of London, told The Guardian that investment in geo-engineering research had already begun and, “without international governance structures, schemes could soon be implemented unencumbered by the safeguards needed”.

But, according to abstracts of the papers, Prof. Redgwell was to advise the IPCC in Peru that no new laws should be adopted.

“A multilateral geo-engineering treaty is not likely or desirable. The appetite for climate change law-making is low,” said Diana Bronson, researcher with the international non-governmental organisation, ETC Group.

“Geo-engineering is not a public good, but could be a giant international scandal with devastating consequences on the poor.”

In the papers, many of the scientists accept there are major uncertainties around the technologies. However, the scientific steering group of the meeting, which will assess the technologies, includes many well-known geo-engineering advocates who have called for public funds to conduct large-scale experiments as well as scientists who have patents on geo-engineering technologies or financial interests in the technologies.

The meeting has been given added weight because in June, Christiana Figueres, head of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), told The Guardian that the world may have to investigate geo-engineering because emissions were continuing to rise.

“We are putting ourselves in a scenario where we will have to develop more powerful technologies to capture emissions out of the atmosphere,” she said. “We are getting into very risky territory.” (Report in The Guardian, 1 June 2011)

South Africa has much to ponder, with the conference on climate change only a few months away.

South Africa

South Africa has already expressed this commitment by subscribing to the UNFCCC Conference of the Parties 16 Cancún Agreements, pledging its voluntary commitment to reduce emissions below a “business as usual baseline” by 34% by 2020 and by 42% by 2025. The extent of the reduction will be dependent on financial, technological and capacity-building support by developed countries.

This commitment will present challenges for the country’s fossil fuel-dependent economy and for the design of a more appropriate development path.

South Africa has high potential to use solar energy and other renewable sources, but these are currently still expensive.

Southern Africa has significant hydroelectric power potential; but for technical and political reasons, it will be many years before the opportunity offered by these can be developed to their full extent.

Ultimately, South Africa’s greatest challenge is how to reach its own development goals, substantially reduce poverty and halve the percentage of jobless people in the country (which stands at 24% currently), yet use alternative and greener energy sources to the degree that would make it possible for the country to meet its obligations to COP 16.

As www.greenbusinessguide.co.za describes in its June report: medium-term development proposals for investment in electricity generation have recently been formalised, which highlight the broader development challenge.

As the energy system is transformed, new opportunities will arise for job creation. However, these additional jobs must be set against the potential job losses in the mining industry, as more expensive energy constrains its activities.

Because the export earnings of the mining sector currently help to fund South African imports (including the inputs for the development of new industrial sectors) as well as create a large number of low-skilled jobs, the government and industry would need to look at innovative ways in which to support and transform the sector as it heads for a low-carbon future.

 

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