South Africa still fortunate, as record temperatures

hit northern hemisphere {writer: Piet Coetzer}

While 12 ‘significant’ disaster events between March 2003 and November 2008 have cost the Western Province more than R2.6 billion in damage, and affected tens of thousands of people, they pale in the face of that which has been happening during the summer of this year in the northern hemisphere, as well as the present floods in Asia.

In South Africa, the worst in terms of human costs did not come from natural disasters, but from the social violence associated with the outbreak of xenophobia in May 2008 when – in the City of Cape Town and the Eden District Municipality alone – between 20 000 and 22 000 people were displaced.

The worst natural disaster in terms of monetary cost was the severe weather event of November 2007, when a cut-off low pressure system swept through the Cape Winelands, Overberg, Central Karoo and Eden Municipality, causing direct damage of R830.9 million. This is according to a recently released Radar (Risk and Development Annual Review) 2010 report, a study jointly conducted by University of Cape Town researchers and the provincial Department of Local Government’s disaster management centre.

According to a recent report in the Guardian newspaper, in the United Kingdom during the summer of 2010, record temperatures were recorded in 17 countries. Record temperatures occurred in Russia, Belarus and the Ukraine, the three countries at the centre of a heat wave in eastern Europe which lasted for more than three weeks. It also occurred in Africa, the Middle East and Latin American countries.

Temperatures in Moscow have been consistently 20° C above normal during that period. Thousands of hectares of forest burned in fires, killing 54 people and leaving thousands homeless. For days, Moscow was shrouded in smog, and environmentalists raised fears that the blaze could release radioactive particles from areas contaminated in the 1986 Chernobyl nuclear power station disaster.

Wildfires swept through northern Portugal, killing two firefighters and destroying 18 000ha of forest and bushland since late July. At one stage, 600 firefighters were battling to contain no less than 29 separate fires.

Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Niger, Pakistan and Sudan have all recorded temperatures of more than 47° C since June. The 17 recorded record temperatures represented a record in itself. The previous record number of temperatures was for 14 new highs recorded during the summer of 2007.

According to the Guardian report, the extreme weather conditions, which have devastated crops and wildlife, are believed to have killed thousands of elderly people, particularly in Russia and northern India.

Pakistan, which since has experienced its worst ever floods, recorded Asia’s hottest day on 26 May when 53.5° C was recorded in Mohenjo-daro.

Heat waves have also occurred in the United States, with Las Vegas, Atlantic City, Washington, Baltimore and Trenton all documenting their highest ever temperatures during July.

Interestingly, according to global research collated by meteorologists at the weather information provider Weather Underground, which is supported by US government data collated on 11 different indicators, global temperatures have been rising since the 1850s. June 2010, however, was the hottest ever and 2010 is on course to be the warmest year since records began in 1880, according to separate data from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

The trend of a warmer world is now incontrovertible, and this June was the 304th consecutive month with a combined global land and surface temperature above the 20th century average. The last month with below-average temperatures was February 1985.

Each of the 10 warmest average global temperatures recorded since 1880 have occurred in the last 15 years, with the previous warmest first half of a year experienced in 1998.

There are anomalies, however. These include Spain, which experienced its coolest June since 1997; and Guizhou in southern China, which had its coolest June on record.

According to the Beijing Climate Center, Inner Mongolia, Heilongjiang and Jilin experienced their warmest June since their records began in 1951.

The release of the “Radar” 2010 report in the Western Cape coincided with the province’s annual disaster risk seminar at the University of the Western Cape.

It was developed for the provincial department by the University of Cape Town’s Disaster Mitigation for Sustainable Livelihoods Programme.

The provincial MEC for Local Government Anton Bredell said at the time of the report’s release that it was the first of its kind to detail disaster events and critical risk-reduction issues in the province, and that it provided insight into the complexity of managing risks.

“I am hoping this publication will emphasise the importance of investing in the proactive side of disaster management, like research and awareness campaigns,” he said.