Climate and dwindling resources propel us toward new fuels {writer: Piet Coetzer}

It can safely be said that the December international summit in Copenhagen on climate change, officially known as the Conference of Parties (COP15), was an instance were the mountain brought forth a mouse. That does not mean, however, that there will be a decrease in concerns about global warming and the impact of the energy sector that is still heavily dependent on ‘dirty’ fossil fuels.

In fact, there is fairly wide consensus among commentators that – not only in the face of global warming, but more importantly due to the impact of dwindling oil and gas reserves – alternative energy sources will be one of the major players in the immediate years to come.

At the end of last year, as the previous decade was drawing to a close, reports surfaced about the suppression of information by the International Energy Agency that a peak in global oil and gas supplies – the point at which the growth in demand starts outstripping the discovery of new sources – is at hand.

At least one of the reasons being put forward for the suppression of this information is a fear that it could trigger a new financial crisis.

With ‘sustainability’ expected to become one of the most important buzzwords over a wide front of the human experience as the history of this new decade and further into the future starts unfolding, many futurists are predicting that energy is set to become the ‘next big thing’.

It is unlikely to happen along a straight line, but all indications are that in the medium- to long term, the world is heading toward a new energy dispensation that will see ‘traditional’ primary sources of energy being replaced by new technologies.

Many of these technologies will empower smaller communities and even individuals to become more self-sufficient, and over time even the role of local authorities as the providers of distribution networks may shrink.

With electricity distribution currently being one of the more important sources of income for municipalities, it is clear that the need for adaptation may develop on a much wider front than is generally perceived at present.

There is already the development of Africa, particularly to the north of the continent, as an energy exporter to Europe.

Increasingly, areas such as the barren Sahara Desert are being seen and developed for the export of wind-generated and sun-tapping electricity to Europe.

Also indicative of a shift taking place internationally on the energy front, was the announcement in early January in the United Sates that the state of Ohio stands to gain nearly $8.8 million in grants from the federal Department of Labour to train workers dislocated by the recession and others in “green jobs”.

Ohio’s federal senate representative Sherrod Brown said the state “is on its way to becoming the Silicon Valley of clean energy manufacturing”.

The idea of the grant is to pay for the training of workers in jobs for clean energy public transportation, wind, solar, geothermal, and manufacturing and other sectors.

Also indicative of the changing business environment in the wake of the recent financial/economic crisis and in the face of the nature of the climate change/dwindling resource reality, the grants will go to private public partnerships (PPPs) that include employers and trade unions.

Besides the challenges it poses, it is also indicative of the extent to which the move toward clean and sustainable energy offers economic opportunities.

According to reports, clean energy industries are already one of the state’s fastest growing sectors. Over the last three years alone, some $74 million in venture capital has found its way to clean energy enterprises in Ohio.

One can also expect massive changes in key industries of mankind’s present lifestyle in the face of the twin onslaught of climate change and depleting fossil fuel reserves.

Notably in the transport sector, the airline industry and shipping sectors are expected to come under increasing pressure to clean up their acts. Both industries at present make a massive contribution to global carbon dioxide emissions.

In the process, it is likely that the global community will also have to re-evaluate how it organises itself by using, for example, virtual technology for international communication and deliberation.

The irony does not escape that the carbon footprint of the December 2009 COP15 summit in Copenhagen, resulting from the air transport of a multitude of delegates alone, must have been massive.

Some commentators also foresee a decade of localisation, with the development of city farming, low energy demand cottage industries. The pollution and monetary costs of transporting food, and production/manufacturing components between continents or even regions within countries, are also likely to give some momentum to the development of ‘localisation’.

The international Institute for Global Futures, on its website www.globalfuturist.com, sets out what it describes as the “top 10 energy trends for the 21st century”
as follows:

• Global demand for energy in the near future will outpace supply within 25 years, unless new sources are found to support global growth;

• Energy terrorism and theft will become a future weapon of choice, threatening global peace and security;

• Energy, being linked to all vital services such as health, food, transportation and commerce, will be a key driver of future global business;

• Clean, renewable energy sources such as solar, hydrogen and wind will be essential for future productivity;

• Oil-dominated energy is politically and economically unsustainable as a reliable source of fuel for the future. Although oil reserves are in supply decline and increasingly costly, oil will continue to play an important role in the 21st century;

• GDP, growth and productivity will decline if new and cost-effective non-oil energy sources are not found fast to protect future growth and prosperity, and to help rebalance the future of the world;

• New sources of renewable abundant and cost-effective energy must be fast developed within 20-30 years to manage the population’s expectations of enhanced quality of life worldwide;

• Carbon-based pollution from fossil fuels will be linked to a growing number of future public health risks;

• Energy security will be one of the chief concerns in the 21st century leading to global competition, conflict and the collaboration of nations and corporations; and

• Exciting new energy frontiers are emerging such as nanotechnology, which will offer promising alternatives to traditional sources of energy in the future.