A multitude of factors could make for restless times ahead {writer: Stef Terblanche}

As municipalities across the country are preparing for the local government elections, many are balanced on a knife’s edge in more ways than one.

Facing certain municipalities are a number of possible developments that could, in various ways, affect their stability and their smooth functioning. These range from a change of ruling party to political violence, low voter turnouts and internal squabbles affecting some parties.

But the darkest cloud hanging over the municipal elections is still the escalating and violent service delivery protests in many towns across the country, which some commentators believe may suggest a feeling among citizens that democracy is failing them.

Other factors such as the failure to implement turnaround strategies, ongoing poor financial management and dysfunctional municipalities, among others, could have an effect.

Even events in North Africa and the Middle East may come to haunt local government and the elections in South Africa, some commentators say.

Date

The speculation is finally behind us. South Africans will be going to the polls in local government elections on 18 May this year.

The formal campaigns have now begun.

In the Western Cape, the local government scene is likely to become a battlefield of intense competition as a reinvigorated ANC, having finally elected a new provincial leadership, will challenge the Democratic Alliance (DA) – recently reinforced by its partnership agreement with the Independent Democrats (ID) for dominance.

Also in the Western Cape, the DA – and more recently the DA-ID partnership – has steadily strengthened its dominance in the province in municipal by-elections since April 2009.

The ANC is confident, however, that it will take back lost ground in the province now that it has sorted out its provincial leadership problem.

In the Eastern Cape, as well as in a number of other provinces, the ANC could be affected by internal problems, something that is likely to negatively affect the Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) in KwaZulu-Natal and the Congress of the People (Cope) nationwide.

This could have negative consequences for municipalities controlled by any of these parties and where these squabbles and problems are present.

KwaZulu-Natal

In KwaZulu-Natal, the move by former IFP national chairperson Zanele Magwaza-Msibi and her supporters, to break away and form the National Freedom Party (NFP), has led to a bitter war of words as well as violence, it seems.

Two local councillors have been killed, with the IFP saying there is a systematic, if unproven, campaign to kill its councillors in the province. Both the IFP and NFP claimed that one of the two councillors killed was their member.

Security experts say more violence could follow in this province, with its history of political volatility and violence.

Cope’s internal factional and leadership struggles are well-known, and most analysts believe this will negatively affect the party’s performance in the local elections.

Meanwhile, the ANC faces threats from angry members in more than 60 branches in six provinces to boycott this year’s local government elections, reported City Press. They are dissatisfied with the manner in which the ruling party selects its prospective councillors.

The affected provinces are Mpumalanga, Gauteng, KwaZulu-Natal, Western Cape, North West and Eastern Cape.

The newspaper reported that most of the disgruntled ANC members complained that candidates preferred by the community are excluded in favour of those linked to certain powerful individuals in the party – this after both ANC president Jacob Zuma and secretary-general Gwede Mantashe said the party wanted communities to choose the candidates.

In a dramatic turn of events, about 500 members from Gauteng, Eastern Cape and Mpumalanga travelled to the ANC headquarters in Luthuli House, demanding the party’s leadership should intervene in the row over election candidate lists. They claimed the candidate lists for councillors in their regions included friends and relatives of powerful people in the ANC branches, and not candidates chosen by branches.

These developments have led to violence.

In Atteridgeville, west of Pretoria, a man was killed when ANC members clashed over the list of candidates.

In the Eastern Cape, about 150 ANC members from Ngqushwa and Mnquma stormed the party’s provincial office recently, demanding that provincial secretary Oscar Mabuyane, who was assaulted, should listen to their grievances. The incident was strongly condemned in a statement issued by ANC national spokesperson, Jackson Mthembu.

Cape Town

In Cape Town, ructions could affect both the DA- and DA-ID-controlled metropolitan council following rumours of unhappiness among senior DA councillors over the possibility that the DA’s leadership could install ID leader Patricia de Lille as executive mayor of Cape Town in the place of the DA’s Dan Plato, or another possible DA candidate for mayor.

But the real bogey for the forthcoming elections and local governments around the country is the escalation of delivery protests, often accompanied by violence and the destruction of property. Local authorities have come in for much criticism because of the poor quality of governance and financial management at many of them.

When delivering the annual statement of the ANC’s national executive committee on 8 January this year, President Jacob Zuma said: “We are ready to institute effective improvements in this sphere that is closest to the people.”

He said there were many aspects of local government “that work very well in our country”, and that “the majority of our councillors serve our people with honesty and integrity”.

“However, we acknowledge that there are problems in certain municipalities, which are being attended to.”

But the growing dissent in many towns across the country was brought home starkly by the most recent outbreak of unrest in February as residents in the Wesselton township in the town of Ermelo, Mpumalanga protested the lack of services and jobs. They stoned police, burnt tyres and attacked television crews.

Police opened fire with sharp-point ammunition after they had allegedly been fired on from within the protesting crowd – sending shock waves through the country as the incident stirred memories of the volatile anti-apartheid uprisings of the 1980s.

Most troubling for political leaders is the fact that the protests are being triggered not only by poor service delivery, but also by the lack of jobs – and possibly by anger over the ANC’s election candidate lists.

Township protest actions have steadily escalated over the last few years, rising sharply particularly in the last three.

The independent Johannesburg-based local government research group, Municipal IQ, says these protests peaked at a record 111 such incidents last year.

Also in February, the Siyathemba township in Balfour, Mpumalanga was in an explosive mood as the long-simmering discontent of residents with the government’s alleged “empty promises” on delivery reached boiling point.

In August 2009, President Zuma hastily had to visit the town to calm down residents and listen to their complaints after groups of them had taken to the streets and become violent as they protested the lack of jobs, service delivery and underdevelopment in their area.

This time round, after Wesselton exploded, the president promised that services would be improved ahead of the municipal elections, saying ministers and officials had signed performance and delivery agreements. He added that a strategy was being put in place to tackle backlogs and complaints.

“As we head for local government elections, we are confident that the measures we are putting in place will improve the functioning of local government, as all players know what is expected of them,” President Zuma said.

These issues are most certain to be raised in the run-up to the municipal elections, and could have a decisive influence on the election fortunes of political parties in those towns where protest actions have been most intense.

Respected commentators such as Tom Wheeler, research associate at the South African Institute of International Affairs; and businessperson Moeletsi Mbeki, brother of former president Thabo Mbeki, have suggested that South Africa could soon be facing its own Tunisia- and Egypt-style revolts if something drastic is not done.

The government, however, has dismissed such assertions.

While tough election battles will be fought for control of large and small municipalities across the country, some serious struggles are expected in some of South Africa’s nine metropolitan municipalities.

In Cape Town, the ANC will go all out to wrest control from the DA and ID, or at least reduce their majority. The DA-ID partnership, however, seems confident of retaining control of the city.

A tough fight is expected in Johannesburg, where opposition parties will seek to increase their stake.

But the greatest battle may yet be on hand in Nelson Mandela Bay Metro (Port Elizabeth), where opposition parties are confident they can wrest control away from the ANC as a coalition.

Their optimism that the city may experience its first change of government since 1994 stems from the slide in support for the ANC: In the 2004 national elections, it had an outright majority here of 69.2%, sliding to 66.5% in the 2006 local government poll and 49.6% in 2009’s national elections.

As the government’s municipal turnaround strategy still fails to make much headway more than a year after it was launched, a policy of “bigger is better” may be on the cards. This much was recently suggested by Gauteng’s MEC for Local Government and Housing Humphrey Mmemezi, who said his province has already taken a firm decision to reduce the number of municipalities in the province, which currently stands at 15.

Mmemezi said that would mean bigger municipalities with bigger budgets – allowing more to be done; while smaller municipalities have to struggle along on smaller budgets, but still have to pay for mayors, municipal managers and mayoral committees, and fail to attract senior and experienced staff.

In Gauteng, for instance, the move will lead to the City of Tshwane Metropolitan Municipality merging with Metsweding District Municipality, which incorporates a number of smaller municipalities.

Dysfunctional municipalities

The issue of dysfunctional municipalities remains high on the election agenda.

This issue led to heated exchanges in Parliament recently when political parties debated President Zuma’s State of the Nation Address.

But government ministers say they are making progress with the Local Government Turnaround Strategy, due to be completed by 2014. And, they say, this is closely linked to the conceptualisation of a special purpose vehicle to assist municipalities that have low levels of capacity with infrastructure development.

The Department of Co-operative Governance and Traditional Affairs, in collaboration with the Office of the Auditor-General, launched Operation Clean Audit to help municipalities achieve clean audits on their annual financial statements, in addition to maintaining systems for sustaining quality financial statements and management information.

Finally, having set a target of achieving at least a 40% voter turnout at the polls, the Independent Electoral Commission is hoping its funky “Love Your South Africa” local government election campaign will encourage local voters to participate in municipal elections. For many municipalities, that will be of the essence – preventing them from slipping into mediocrity or even chaos.