As a new order develops, the polls will

give a glimpse of the future {writer: Piet Coetzer}

Next year’s municipal elections are shaping up to becoming the most important in South Africa since the first fully democratic election of 1994, as the young democracy seems to be moving to a new, post liberation-politics phase in its development.

There have been increasing signs that the governing tripartite alliance of the African National Congress, South African Communist Party (SACP) and the Congress of South African Trade Unions (Cosatu) at national level – and led by the ANC – is experiencing severe strain due to often conflicting interests. Even within the ANC there are growing divisions.

It is becoming increasingly more unlikely that the Alliance will be going into next year’s municipal elections on as much of a consolidated front as it has in the past. The 2011 elections could give South Africa its first real indication of what a future party political dispensation in the country could look like.

As the first round of a string of labour strikes in the country was looming early this year, the online magazine Leadership Intelligence Bulletin in February published an analysis which argued that South Africa is “in a transition to a new order of more natural, ideological dividing lines. The process seems to have come into full swing and the country is in the midst of a political storm that, as was expected, is a messy affair as different power bases within the ruling Alliance battle it out for dominance.

“It is likely to take some time and to be filled by high drama at times, but the political landscape is in the process of changing forever.”

During the height of the public service strike in late August/early September, Cosatu general-secretary Zwelinzima Vavi told a media briefing that the ruling tripartite Alliance is now “dysfunctional”, with sharp divisions preventing a scheduled summit between the partners from taking place.

The nature of the rhetoric being bandied about at the time – with a minister calling union members “murderers” (because of the death of hospital patients as a result of the strike), and Vavi referring to a “predatory state” where the First Family fed first – has made a settlement with honour near impossible. Room for face-saving has disappeared.

Even if the Alliance were to survive the crisis triggered by the civil service strike, it is unlikely that relationships could ever return to ‘as you were’.

Vavi was probably right on the button when he assessed that a number of problems, particularly over economic policy, had put an end to post-Polokwane.

It was at Polokwane that Jacob Zuma succeeded, with the help of a wide range of groups with essentially opposing interests, to secure the top spot in the country.

At the media briefing, Vavi said the Alliance summit due to have convened after the Fifa Soccer World Cup failed to materialise “for fear of an implosion as a result of fundamental differences on the question of where the power lies.”

What he failed to mention is the game of brinkmanship that the trade union movement played during the time of the World Cup, with what amounted to blackmail to secure disproportionate remuneration packages in the transport sector and from government-owned utility, Eskom.

As the battle for power and policy dominance between the various factions within the governing Alliance plays out at the moment, President Zuma is increasingly taking on the appearance of what the Americans would call a “lame duck presidency”.

His hopes of securing peace between the factions that brought him to power are fast slipping away.

Certain commentators have been pointing out that the very essence for the existence of governments in the first place is that it is charged with the responsibility to ensure balance and a fair playing field between competing interest groups within a society. It is therefore not ideal for a trade union federation, which by its nature represents partisan interests, to be part of the government of the day.

For this reason, the real and more important significance of what is happening probably comes in Cosatu’s warning in a statement at the time that it would withhold its support from some ANC candidates in next year’s local government elections – those whom it regards as unfit for those positions.

“We refuse to campaign for a thief or incompetent, lazy people who only make themselves available for personal gain,” the statement said.

It further warned about the anger and disillusionment among voters, which is at such a level that they will turn to opposition parties during next year’s elections. “It is going to be a challenge to persuade voters in some poor communities to stay with the ANC.”

While this is certainly bad news for the ANC, it may be good news for the country because it is a sign that it is finally starting to put the days of liberation politics behind it and moving toward more normal issue-driven politics.

Democracy in South Africa is probably facing its greatest test since 1994, and next year’s municipal elections will give a good indication if it can be handled with maturity by all parties involved.