A compromise might be possible in Durban

A compromise is mooted at the COP17 conference on climate change, which started in Durban yesterday, as pessimists predict that the earliest a new global deal on reducing carbon emissions is likely to come into force is 2020 – eight years after the Kyoto Protocol comes to an end. According to some reports, one of the proposals, as set by the European Union, would see COP17 parties agreeing to a road map that would provide mandates for different countries up to 2015.

A binding global agreement that would aim to deal with up to 85% of the world’s carbon dioxide emissions would then be drawn up by the first Conference of the People meeting after 2015, in December 2016, and would take effect in 2020. This would give countries more time, until 2015, to comply with international climate protection obligations and to introduce the corresponding monitoring, says Connie Hedegaard, the top climate diplomat of the European Union. (Source: Mail & Guardian, 25 November 2011).

The challenge for the 195 participants at this year’s meeting will be to mitigate and adapt to the risks posed by rising temperatures, the consequences of which will be increasing water scarcity, loss of agricultural production, extreme weather patterns such as floods and droughts, and rising sea levels that threaten coastal cities.

According to the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the increase in average global temperatures caused by greenhouse emissions must be kept below two degrees Celsius if the worst of these catastrophic consequences are to be averted.

Durban’s meeting is the last chance to provide clarity on the future of the Kyoto Protocol, the international agreement that legally binds 37 developed economies to emission reduction targets, which for the years 2008 to 2012 amounted to an average of five degrees below 1990 emission levels.

The protocol itself doesn’t end, but after 2012 the existing targets expire.

Durban will have the difficult task of convincing countries to set new emission reduction targets for what the negotiators call a second commitment period.

Peter Willis, the South African director of the Cambridge programme for sustainability leadership, told Financial Mail that Japan, Russia and Canada won’t commit to new targets under the Kyoto Protocol because, these would be legally binding.

And the United States is not in a position to sign up to anything legal. Japan, Russia and Canada don’t think that is fair. Because the US won’t agree to a legal deal of any sort, neither will India or China under the convention.

It becomes difficult because those three big players are collectively responsible for almost 50% of world emissions, says Willis.

The European Union is likely to make a second round of binding commitments under the Kyoto Protocol dependent on the extent to which parties are able to signal a willingness for a new legal agreement, as well as how robust the procedures are to verify and report on countries’ emission reductions.

Ultimately, getting countries to start moving towards an agreement to come up with a legally binding commitment, will be one of the major challenges.

According to the United Nations Environmental Programme (UNEP) newest annual assessment called “Bridging the Emissions Gap,” current pledges by nations to reduce greenhouse gas emissions fall way short of what is requirede to keep the global average temperatures increase below two degrees Celsius.

To have a likely chance of keeping warming below two degrees Celsius , global emissions need to be reduced to 44 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent by 2020. This is well below current levels.

However, even if the most ambitious current pledges to reduce emissions are implemented in full, the total will still be six gigatonnes above this 44-gigatonne goal – the so-called “gigatonne gap” – which amounts to almost the total annual emissions of the United States.

International conservation group WWF says that, in practice, the gap is much wider – up to 11 gigatonnes, because of weak commitments and accounting loopholes in developed country targets.

But it also notes that the UNEP report concludes that it is possible to close this gap by 2020 to below 1.5 degrees Celsius or 2 degrees Celsius if sufficient measures are introduced to promote energy efficiency and the use of renewable energy, to reduce deforestation and to improve agricultural practices.

Samantha Smith, WWF’s head of Global Climate and Energy Initiative, says the report should be a “big reality check for negotiators heading into the Durban talks.

“It very clearly shows the world is heading for very dangerous levels of climate change if we don’t take decisive action right now.

“The good news is that UNEP confirms that we still can get on the right path, if we move quickly to stop deforestation and shift to renewable energy,” says Smith. (Source: Weekend Argus, 26 November, 2011).

All of this will require extremely strong leadership, the abilities of the global community to reach a compromise as well as a universal commitment to carbon emission reductions.

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