Perception and reality are not always the same {writer: Stef Terblanche}

A devastating series of earthquakes which occurred around the world since the beginning of this year, killing hundreds of thousands of people, and the eerie impact on global aviation of a dust cloud caused by a volcanic eruption in Iceland, have generated panic and speculation that there has been a dramatic increase in such natural disasters. The question on everyone’s mind is: what is going on?

Some religious organisations and their devotees seem to think there has been a definite increase and that it is related to Biblical prophesies of the end times. Astrologers and conspiracy theorists also believe there has been an increase.

The mainstream and alternative media, bloggers, websites and other commentators around the world are frantically debating what they believe to be a worrying increase in these disasters. Many have linked it to the effects of global warming and the damage man is doing to Mother Earth.

However, scientists have poured cold water on all of this, saying there has not been an increase in the number of earthquakes, only a worsening in their impact.

On the other hand, there has been a definite increase in climate-related disasters (which exclude earthquakes), yet despite strong suspicions, there is no scientific certainty whether this is being caused by climate change or not.

Scientists at the United States Geological Survey (USGS) office and other such organisations are unanimous in their opinion that there has been no increase or any signs of unusually high earthquake activity in 2010.

Data going back to 1900 shows that an average of 16 major earthquakes (the definition for magnitude 7 to 7.9 on the Richter scale) and one great earthquake (magnitude 8 or higher) have occurred worldwide each year. In some years, the figure was as low as six earthquakes (1986 and 1989), while 1943 had 32 events, with considerable variations from year to year.

But on average, the figure so far for this year is nowhere out of the ordinary.

Hitting vulnerable areas

It seems, however, that the earthquakes this year struck in areas of high population and infrastructure density and low defences against such disasters. A case in point is Haiti, thus magnifying the death toll and destruction. Because of the huge devastation, media coverage was higher than normal.

Together, these factors created a false impression that there has been an increase in the actual number of earthquakes.

But increase or no increase, earthquakes are a worrying threat.

The USGS lists 28 major earthquakes having taken place so far this year (between 3 January and 26 April). In the same period, literally hundreds of smaller earthquakes occurred around the globe.

The most severe was measured at magnitude 8.8 on the Richter scale, off the coast of Chile on 27 February; while the most damaging one, measuring 7.0, occurred on 12 January in Haiti, leaving thousands of people dead, missing, injured and homeless.

Pacific Ring of Fire

The world’s worst hit earthquake belt – where 90% of all quakes occur and which is called the Pacific Ring of Fire – runs in a horseshoe shape from Papua New Guinea up through Indonesia and the Philippines, past Southern China to Korea and Japan, across to Alaska, and down the western side of the Americas. Another belt of incidents runs from Japan across China and Russia to Western Europe.

Africa seems fairly insulated from earthquake events, with the USGS map of events for 2010 showing only one incident so far. But since January 2009, the USGS has stopped measuring events of a magnitude less than 4.5, which may explain why the USGS does not list the four earthquakes that occurred on 23 April in Gauteng, Limpopo and North West.

In the years between 2000 and 2009, some 471 012 people were killed by earthquakes, or 47 101 on average per year. In the first four months of this year, the 224 710 who have died in earthquakes already far exceed the annual average of the preceding 10 years. This would equate to one-eighth of the entire population of a country such as Namibia having been wiped out.

It is this dramatic increase in the death toll from earthquakes that may have led to assumptions of an increase in these phenomena.

The Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED), which is part of the Catholic University de Louvain in Brussels and is an international non-profit organisation that works closely with the World Health Organization (WHO), says the growing population and an increase in infrastructure mean the world’s exposure to natural hazards is inevitably increasing.

Scientists further say that much of the perceived increase in the number of disasters and hazardous events being reported in recent years can be attributed to an improvement in information access, media coverage and better scientific monitoring and reporting of events.

Already when Charles Darwin visited Chile in 1835 on board the HMS Beagle and experienced the great Chilean earthquake

But the growth in disasters does not only refer to earthquakes. CRED says a growth in climate-related disasters, which exclude earthquakes, is particularly significant in coastal areas around the globe where the strongest population growth is located and where it is accompanied by greater exposure to floods, cyclones and tidal waves. Any land remaining available for urban growth is generally risk prone, such as floodplains or steep slopes that are subject to landslides.

The centre says its statistics reveal an exponential increase in disasters.

Climate link unsure

However, the jury is still out on the assumed link between increasing natural disasters and climate change. Back in March 2007, the secretary-general of the World Meteorological Organization Michel Jarraud warned that global warming was likely to cause an increase in tidal waves, floods, cyclones and hurricanes.

But in January this year, the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change was heavily criticised by scientists for wrongly linking global warming to an increase in the number and severity of natural disasters such as hurricanes and floods.

The UN apparently had been basing its claims on an unpublished report that had not been subjected to the usual scientific scrutiny. It also ignored warnings that the evidence supporting a link between global warming and increasing natural disasters was not very strong.

That issue became a central topic for discussion at the Copenhagen climate summit last year. It formed the basis of a demand by developing countries for compensation of $100 billion from rich nations that they blamed for creating the most emissions, while developing countries had to absorb most of the damage inflicted by increasing natural disasters.

In January this year, CRED director Debarati Guha-Sapir said there had been a “dramatic” rise in natural disasters during the past decade. Earthquakes made up 60% of natural disasters from 2000 to 2009, but were not climate related; while droughts, storms and floods made up the majority of disasters overall, increasing tenfold since data was first collected in 1950. The latter are climate related, but Guha-Sapir said it was not clear to what extent climate change played a role.

While there seems to be a correlation between climate change and the frequency of climate-linked natural disasters, scientific confirmation has yet to come.

Religious commentators, on the other hand, seem to share no such qualms. A search of news sites and blogs on the Web shows many such commentators relating the apparent increase in natural disasters to Biblical warnings about the end times.

Their ‘proof’ is the statements attributed to Old Testament prophets such as Daniel in Daniel 12:1 or Jesus in Matthew 24:3-8 or the apocalyptic predictions in the Book of Revelation. These commentators certainly believe there has been an increase in disasters.

While South Africa has experienced few earthquakes ranging from very minor to more serious in the past, it seems the Western Cape is particularly vulnerable. Cape Town’s Milnerton, Table View and Melkbosstrand suburbs straddle a major fault line known as the Milnerton Fault.

Scientists believe this fault is due for a significant event once again, the last major earthquake here, registering an estimated 6.5 on the Richter scale, having occurred 200 years ago on 4 December 1809.

Is South Africa prepared?

Disaster management in South Africa underwent a significant change with the implementation of the Disaster Management Act of 2002 and the National Disaster Management Framework (South Africa, 2005). It placed South Africa at the forefront of a global paradigm shift from a purely response-oriented approach to disaster management to a more proactive approach, says the South African National Disaster Management Centre.

A network of disaster management centres was to be set up in all municipalities, provinces and at national level.

In October last year, however, the official opposition, the Democratic Alliance (DA), said disaster management planning required urgent attention, adding that one province and 18 local governments did not have statutory mandated disaster management centres, while 43 municipalities – including Johannesburg – lacked proper plans.

In November last year, Deputy President Kgalema Motlanthe said that a report had shown a need for improvement.

In April this year, the Department of Co-operative Governance and Traditional Affairs announced it currently was testing its 2010 Disaster Management Plan in partnership with the National Disaster Management Centre.

Following a Cabinet meeting, a statement was released, saying that exercises are being conducted to verify the effectiveness of the plans. This has to be concluded before the 2010 Fifa Soccer World Cup begins in June.