Positive lessons from Chile

The Chilean earthquake that hit the country during the early morning hours of 27 February has followed close on the heels of the recent earthquake-induced devastation in Haiti. Many of the images that came to us on our television screens were very similar on both occasions. But some of the results were also vastly different, and in that there are important lessons to be learned according to a very recently published report by The Brookings Institution.

In Chile, criticism of the government’s response is widespread. Many are wondering whether the numerous deaths and severe destruction could have been prevented; whether the government’s emergency response to this natural disaster was speedy and effective; and why law and order broke down in the earthquake’s aftermath.

Criticism has focused on the failure by the central authorities to alert coastal populations of the impending tsunami, its delayed and timid reaction to unrest in the most devastated region in the south (where most of the looting has taken place), and its slow initial distribution of essential supplies.

Natural disasters and death tolls

As of 5 March, the Chilean government had confirmed 279 identified victims, although the death toll is likely to increase by the hundreds, considering many have not yet been identified or are deemed missing.

Yet, the death toll is highly unlikely to reach the thousand mark. Nonetheless, the tragic death of hundreds of people is enormously saddening and brings grief to many others.

The Chilean earthquake was the fifth strongest quake for over 100 years, measuring 8.8 on the Richter scale – putting it in the "mega-earthquake" league, which means that it was more than a hundred times stronger than other earthquakes near populated areas in recent years, with the exception of the 2004/5 Indonesian earthquakes.

Fresh in our minds are the images of recent disaster in Haiti, with an earthquake magnitude of 7.0 and a death toll of more than 220 000 people. Pakistan in 2005, with a quake of magnitude 7.6, saw 86 000 deaths; Mexico, 1985 (magnitude 8.0) 9 500 dead; Japan, 1995 (magnitude 6.9)  5 500 dead; Armenia, 1998 (magnitude 6.8) 25 000 dead; Turkey, 1999 (magnitude 7.4) 17 100 dead; and China, 2008 (magnitude 7.8) 70 000 fatlities.

The death toll in these cases far surpasses that of Chile's, and the real question then is why the death toll in Chile is not vastly larger. Not only did the earthquake cause massive surface destruction, it also triggered a tsunami and numerous, severe aftershocks (often exceeding a magnitude of 6).

It may be of little consolation for those in Chile, but when a natural disaster of this magnitude hits, the number of expected deaths would have been vastly higher in most other countries in the world.

Governance matters

Chile’s good governance played a significant role in limiting the death toll resulting from this earthquake. In particular, two dimensions of governance stand out – government effectiveness (the efficacy of the public sector), and control of corruption.

Over the years, Chile’s effective institutions succeeded in designing and adopting better building codes, which have been upgraded periodically to take into account previous earthquake experiences, innovations in preventative technologies and the country’s growing wealth (made possible in part by good governance).

Equally noteworthy is that these building codes are enforced. Naturally, there are many damaged structures, particularly (but not exclusively) those built long ago. Even though there are many people close to the epicentre who are now homeless, the overall stock of houses was not decimated and the number of fatalities due to the collapse of buildings was limited. In fact, a very large portion of deaths resulted from the tsunami instead.

In contrast with the devastating effects that corruption in the construction sector had on the cities affected by the earthquakes in Turkey (where many new residential buildings collapsed) and China (where many schools full of learners collapsed), the low levels of corruption in Chile, coupled with effective institutions, help explain why building codes were largely enforced.

Pitfalls and the “governance test”

Advance planning for earthquakes, including training drills, is an integral part of adult and child education in Chile. In terms of immediate crisis response, however, serious errors occurred:

• First, the tsunami alert was mishandled, apparently by a responsible unit in the Navy. Even if the tsunami threat would have been identified in a timely fashion by the responsible authorities, it is unlikely that the information would have been relayed in time to the affected localities. This is because the warning system relied on the Internet and telephony, both of which were disabled during the power grid failure.

• The government was initially slow in dispersing essential supplies to the most afflicted cities in the south, partly due to its inability to assess local needs as a result of the power failure.

• The government hesitated and delayed the deployment of the army to assist in the relief effort and to maintain law and order – partly as a result of narrow political calculations and latent sensitivity to the use of armed force, given the memories of the Pinochet regime.

The errors made, while not trivial, also need to be put into perspective. Perfection is wholly unrealistic in any crisis situation of this magnitude and complexity, where thousands of critical decisions and steps need to be taken in a co-ordinated manner by many officials in disparate locations, and in a very short period of time.

For instance, more serious blunders occurred during the United States' response to the 2005 Hurricane Katrina in New Orleans. More than 1 800 people died and tens of thousands were stranded perilously. Looting, violence and disorder erupted and lasted nearly a week until 40 000 troops arrived – belatedly – to restore law and order.

Today, the city has only about two-thirds of its pre-Katrina population.

The real “governance test” is the ability and flexibility of a country’s institutions to address and contain crises, which does include learning and acting quickly to address and correct errors.

Another crucial component of the “governance test” is the local-level response. The heroic efforts by many local government officials, community leaders and villagers often do not entice the TV cameras in the same way that a building ablaze, a looted store, or a collapsed structure does.

Some governance implications for Chile

Clearly, right now the priority ought to be the continued expediting of the relief effort in a decisive, well-coordinated and targeted manner. Yet, it is important to start planning for the reconstruction phase as well.

In sharp contrast to Haiti, Chile will not require a massive international aid effort (although it will require targeted technical and equipment support from other countries), nor will it require the inception of major new institutions. Further, the dynamic private sector is expected to play a pivotal role.

Chile’s modern and transparent procurement system now will be put through a major test, given the scope and urgency of the upcoming infrastructure investments that will be required.

There are also broader challenges that will need to be addressed.

Among institutions, the police and the army may need to be reformed and modernised. A move toward some modicum of decentralisation and devolution of central authority ought to be considered in light of this experience.

And, more generally, the looting and arson is a potent reminder of the potentially explosive socio-economic tensions inherent in an unequal society. In fact, among pre-earthquake governance challenges in Chile, consistently common crime would top the list. The massive investment and job creation effort that will be required in Chile’s south may offer a unique opportunity to tackle these pending challenges too.

Indeed, a tragic natural disaster such as this can become an opportunity for Chile to emerge even stronger and more equal. Leadership is, and will be, key.

For the full report, visit http://www.brookings.edu/opinions/2010/0305_chile_earthquake_kaufmann.aspx

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Comments (2)

• |2010-03-09 11:26:21 Thinus Nel  - Disaster Management in the RSA
  Could you please provide a link to a Goverment website where legislature on Disaster Management can be read?
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• |2010-03-09 12:13:24 Anonymous  - Piet Coetzer
  Dear Thinus,
  The link to use is http://www.ndmc.gov.za/
  Hope it helps.
  Editor
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